Optimizing Waste Treatment Pathways for Sustainable District Heating Development: Integrating Material Flow and District Heating Models in OSeMOSYS

Background

Sweden’s commitment to increasing recycling rates for waste is expected to alter the composition of waste significantly, leading to a reduction in high-calorific value materials, such as plastics and paper. Although this ambition is steering waste management in the right direction, it poses a challenge for district heating (DH) systems that depend on waste-to-energy (WtE) incineration for a stable heat supply. With fewer high-energy materials in waste, the calorific value of waste suitable for incineration is likely to decrease, reducing the potential for heat generation. Alternative waste treatment technologies, such as anaerobic digestion and gasification, may provide feasible pathways for waste management and energy recovery but require careful evaluation to identify the most cost-effective and sustainable options. This project seeks to address this issue by using OSeMOSYS to model multiple waste treatment technologies and determine how changes in waste composition impact the DH sector.

Task Description

To meet the project's objectives, the student has the flexibility to choose a combination of tasks and considerable freedom in shaping the direction of their focus. The tasks are outlined as follows:

1. Waste Flow and Calorific Analysis:

Conduct an assessment of current waste streams, categorizing waste types by energy potential and composition (e.g., plastics, paper, organic waste). Project future waste compositions based on trends in recycling rates and regulatory changes, identifying potential impacts on calorific value and heat generation capacity.

2. Techno-Economic Modeling of Waste Treatment Options: 

Develop a material flow model in OSeMOSYS to simulate various waste treatment options, including incineration, anaerobic digestion, gasification, composting, and recycling. Each option will be evaluated for its energy output, emissions, and costs. Key performance indicators will include energy efficiency, costs, carbon footprint, and scalability.

3. Model Integration: 

Link the material flow model to an existing DH system model in OSeMOSYS, allowing for dynamic feedback between waste treatment and DH performance. This integrated model will provide a system-wide view, enabling the assessment of how shifts in waste composition and treatment technologies impact heat supply, cost efficiency, and emissions in DH networks.

4. Scenario Analysis and Sensitivity Testing:

Conduct scenario-based analyses to explore different futures based on recycling rates, policy shifts, and technological advances in waste treatment. Sensitivity analyses will be conducted to test the DH system’s resilience to changes in waste availability and calorific content, focusing on identifying cost-optimal and environmentally sound configurations for waste treatment under varying scenarios.

5. Stakeholder Consultation and Reporting: 

Engage with key stakeholders, including policymakers, DH operators, and waste management authorities, to ensure that model assumptions and scenarios are aligned with real-world trends and regulatory goals. Prepare a comprehensive report detailing findings, recommendations for waste management and DH integration, and policy implications.

Learning Outcomes

Upon completing the project, the student will be able to:

• Apply technical skills in energy modeling by using OSeMOSYS to develop and integrate Material Flow Analysis (MFA) and District Heating (DH) models, simulating interactions between waste-to-energy and DH systems.

• Analyze and compare alternative waste-to-energy pathways, including incineration, anaerobic digestion, and gasification, focusing on their energy outputs and environmental impacts.

Evaluate different waste treatment scenarios to determine their effects on energy system resilience, cost efficiency, and emissions through scenario planning and decision-making techniques.

• Effectively present technical findings to policymakers, DH operators, and other relevant stakeholders ensuring alignment with sustainable energy policies and targets for transitioning towards a more sustainable circular economy in both sectors.

Prerequisites

Candidates should have a background in energy systems or environmental engineering, with foundational knowledge of waste management practices. Familiarity with energy modeling (preferably OSeMOSYS or similar tools), programming (Python, R, or MATLAB), and techno-economic analysis is essential. Prior experience with scenario analysis or systems modeling will be advantageous, as will an interest in sustainable energy policy and waste management.

Criteria for evaluation

Throughout the entire thesis project work and method development, key metrics for the final assessment include:

• Fulfillment of the Intended Learning Outcomes (ILOs) for the Master Thesis at KTH’s ITM School.

• Demonstration of the student's initiative and customization of research questions.

• A critical perspective, system-thinking and discussion of relevant aspects.

• Consideration and appropriate utilization of existing literature.

• Capacity to synthesize and communicate the research in a well-written, concise, and proficiently articulated thesis report

If the quality of the work meets the standards and if the student desires, we will guide the work toward being suitable for submission to a high-quality journal for publication.

Research Areas

• Open Tools for System Science

• Science-Policy-Society Interactions

Duration

The project is expected to span 6 months, with major milestones including:

- Months 1: Waste flow and calorific analysis.

- Months 2: Development of the MFA model in OSeMOSYS.

- Months 3: Integration of the MFA model with the DH system model.

- Months 4-5: Scenario analysis and stakeholder consultation.

- Month 6: Reporting, dissemination, and final review.

How to Apply

Applicants should submit a cover letter detailing their interest and relevant experience, along with a CV and academic transcripts. The application should be sent to Rutuben Gajera  and Maryna Henrysson

Supervisor

Examiner