Water Demand Forecasting from Multipurpose Reservoirs in Cochabamba, Bolivia, to 2050: A Sustainable Energy Perspective

The main objective of this research is to forecast the water demand from multipurpose reservoirs in the region of Cochabamba, Bolivia, through 2050. This will focus on water usage for agriculture, human consumption, and other human-related needs, considering the dual-purpose role of these reservoirs in supporting both water supply and electricity generation. The study will contribute to sustainable resource management by providing insights into future water needs and potential conflicts between water use sectors in a context of increasing demand and climate change impacts.

Background

Bolivia has significant potential in water resources, though its geography is highly varied, with stark differences from one region to another. Despite advancements in providing potable water access, the country still faces major challenges in water management and governance, particularly in the context of climate change. In the metropolitan area of Cochabamba, which comprises seven municipalities and is Bolivia's third-largest city, dry climate is experienced and has limited surface water resources. Most of the water supply comes from an aquifer that is progressively degrading and has insufficient recharge capacity, leading to severe water shortages (Agence Francaise de Developpement, 2019).

Cochabamba is a region known for its agricultural productivity and natural resources. However, despite its fertile land, water scarcity has become a significant challenge. The semi-arid climate of Cochabamba leads to highly seasonal and often insufficient rainfall, exacerbating water shortages. This issue was highlighted during the Cochabamba Water War in 2000, a major conflict over water privatization that underscored the difficulties in managing and distributing water resources.

The Misicuni project is a multipurpose initiative designed to meet various critical needs in the Cochabamba region. Its primary objective is to supply potable water to the urban population and the seven municipalities. In addition to providing drinking water, the project will deliver irrigation water to agricultural areas within its influence zone and generate electricity for the National Interconnected System (Empresa Misicuni, 2019).

Considering the multiple uses of water from reservoirs in Cochabamba, it is important to forecast the future demand to evaluate how water demands for agriculture and urban use impact electricity generation. Incorporating climate variables and projected water demand will allow for a better understanding of the interdependence between these sectors.

Task description

Conduct a literature review, focusing on water demand prediction techniques and water resource management strategies for multipurpose reservoirs. This will include studying existing methodologies, models, frameworks, and case studies that address similar contexts. The review will also assess how socio-economic factors, such as population growth and agricultural needs, influence water demand in Cochabamba.
Collect and process relevant data, including historical water usage from multipurpose reservoirs in Cochabamba. This will cover data on water allocation for agriculture, human consumption, and reservoir operations for electricity generation. Additional data will include governmental projects, population growth projections, climate change scenarios, and trends in agricultural demand.
Develop a predictive model for future water demand, integrating socio-economic factors like population growth, agricultural expansion, and climate variability. The model will be built using historical data and will simulate different future scenarios, helping to estimate how water demand will evolve in the region by 2050.
Perform scenario analysis to evaluate how water demand may change under different growth and climate assumptions.

Learning outcomes

After completing the thesis work, the student will be able to:

Develop expertise in predictive modelling for water demand using statistical and computational tools.
Acquire skills in analysing climate data and socio-economic trends to forecast future resource needs.
Learn to propose sustainable water management strategies that can mitigate potential conflicts between water use sectors.
Contribute valuable insights for policymakers on sustainable water resource management in Cochabamba, Bolivia, and similar regions.

If the work is of good quality and the student is interested, the research project will be designed to be suitable for a peer-reviewed publication in a high-quality journal.

Prerequisites

Students should be familiar with hydropower generation, Knowledge of hydrological cycles and water resource systems. Knowledge of software tools like Python. Experience with scenario planning and analysis. Critical Thinking and Problem-Solving.